Projected Income Statement: Fastenal Company

Forecast Balance Sheet: Fastenal Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 154 325 38.7 -55.8 -152 -114 -199 -275
Change - 111.04% -88.09% -244.19% -172.4% 24.9% -74.56% -38.19%
Announcement Date 1/19/22 A 1/19/23 A 1/18/24 A 1/17/25 A 1/20/26 A - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Fastenal Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 156.6 173.8 172.8 226.5 245.3 293.7 306.9 322.1
Change - 10.98% -0.58% 31.08% 8.3% 19.72% 4.51% 4.96%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 613.5 767.2 1,260 946.8 1,051 1,128 1,273 1,338
Change - 25.05% 64.22% -24.85% 10.96% 7.39% 12.81% 5.15%
Announcement Date 1/19/22 A 1/19/23 A 1/18/24 A 1/17/25 A 1/20/26 A - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Fastenal Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.09% 23.35% 23.22% 22.34% 22.38% 22.6% 22.9% 23.34%
EBIT Margin (%) 20.25% 20.82% 20.81% 20.01% 20.19% 20.53% 20.87% 21.12%
EBT Margin (%) 20.09% 20.63% 20.72% 19.99% 20.18% 20.52% 20.81% 21.05%
Net margin (%) 15.39% 15.57% 15.72% 15.25% 15.35% 15.56% 15.77% 15.97%
FCF margin (%) 10.21% 10.99% 17.15% 12.55% 12.81% 12.19% 12.61% 12.24%
FCF / Net Income (%) 66.32% 70.59% 109.08% 82.29% 83.49% 78.35% 79.95% 76.67%

Profitability

        
ROA 22.39% 24.57% 25.63% 25.12% 25.81% 26.65% 27.75% 28.4%
ROE 32.03% 35.03% 35.47% 33.04% 33.29% 35.08% 36.06% 36.31%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.11x 0.2x 0.02x - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow 0.25x 0.42x 0.03x - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.61% 2.49% 2.35% 3% 2.99% 3.17% 3.04% 2.95%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 11.28% 10.66% 10.13% 13.44% 13.37% 14.05% 13.27% 12.62%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 25.53% 22.65% 13.72% 23.92% 23.35% 26.03% 24.11% 24.07%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.667 0.8174 1.25 1.022 1.127 1.292 1.337 1.504
Change - 22.55% 52.94% -18.29% 10.29% 14.66% 3.46% 12.51%
Dividend per Share 1 0.56 0.62 0.7 0.78 0.875 0.9672 1.054 1.135
Change - 10.71% 12.9% 11.43% 12.18% 10.54% 9% 7.7%
Book Value Per Share 1 2.643 2.748 2.927 3.154 3.435 3.69 3.995 4.376
Change - 3.95% 6.54% 7.74% 8.92% 7.43% 8.25% 9.54%
EPS 1 0.8 0.945 1.01 1 1.09 1.256 1.39 1.525
Change - 18.12% 6.88% -0.99% 9% 15.19% 10.67% 9.76%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,150,327 1,145,520 1,143,200 1,145,773 1,148,036 1,147,494 1,147,494 1,147,494
Announcement Date 1/19/22 A 1/19/23 A 1/18/24 A 1/17/25 A 1/20/26 A - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 37.2x 33.6x
PBR 12.6x 11.7x
EV / Sales 5.61x 5.14x
Yield 2.07% 2.26%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
46.67USD
Average target price
47.84USD
Spread / Average Target
+2.50%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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