Analysis: Interest Rates

The OAT breaks above 5%: France pays the price of political instability

The reprieve did not last long for the French bond market. After the calm at the end of last week, weekend riots put the system under renewed strain. The 10-year OAT yield briefly moved above the...

Franklin Templeton sees no rate hike in October despite inflation

US inflation is proving stronger than expected, based on the September consumer price index , a report that keeps pressure on the Fed according to CPRAM, but does not point to a rate hike at the end...

High Yield: Historically Low Spreads Amid Rate Pressure (Fitch Ratings)

US and European high-yield bond markets are benefiting from strong investor demand that exceeds supply, helping keep spreads at historically low levels, despite rising government bond yields and a...

The Fed considers another rate hike by December, but is in no hurry

Most Federal Reserve officials believe another rate hike would probably be appropriate by the end of the year, according to the minutes of their September meeting released Wednesday. The committee had...

Christine Lagarde has to clarify her future

The ECB president cannot leave such uncertainty surrounding her future at a time when investors are worried about a new debt crisis in the euro zone.

France: sovereign risk returns to levels seen during the European debt crisis

The spread, as international market participants call it, has taken an increasingly concerning turn since the beginning of August. The yield gap between French OATs and German Bunds has widened by...

Global bonds: why yields are not letting up

The global bond market is enduring its worst stretch in years: the US 10-year is trading above 5.3%, a level not seen since 2007, and government bonds are down nearly 3% since January while stocks are...

Vanguard Warns France on Its Debt

The US asset management giant says the deterioration in France's public finances could further drive up its debt-servicing costs. In an interview with the Financial Times, Vanguard in particular...

Oil, deficits, AI: the cocktail pushing long-term rates higher

The rise in long-term bond yields continues to accelerate worldwide, driven both by renewed inflationary fears and by ever-larger financing needs. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.28% on...

Rates increases may be nearing their end

The arguments are piling up, and yield levels are attractive for investors.

US rates: the 5% threshold breaks, what now?

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury jumped Wednesday to its highest level since 2007, at 5.05%, clearly pushing through the 5.00% threshold around which it had stabilized in recent days. The move was...

How High Can Long-Term Rates Rise Before Stocks Crack?

The rebound in long-term US yields is calling into question the relative appeal of equities. As long as Wall Street keeps betting on earnings growth, it can hold up. But at around 5% or 5.5%, the...

Markets underestimate scale of upcoming rate hikes, Deutsche Bank says

Deutsche Bank believes that the financial markets may not have fully priced in the scale of the rate hikes ahead, noting that history shows central banks end up taking rates higher and more...

ECB: a preemptive rate hike amid energy uncertainty

The ECB raised rates for the second time at its September meeting, taking its deposit rate to 2.50%. However, inflation is showing no meaningful signs of accelerating beyond prices directly affected...

Oddo BHF: "Warsh's Fed showed its independence from the White House"

Since he took over as Fed chair, Kevin Warsh has banned any form of forward guidance, even the most minimal, because in his view it is not the Fed's job to tell the market what it should think....

Bank of England holds base rate steady

The Bank of England said its Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep its base rate at 3.75%, by a vote of six members to three, with the dissenters preferring a 0.25% increase to 4%....

Rate hikes to stop rates from rising

With rates continuing to climb, central banks need to act.

Bank of England: likely to hold rates steady amid energy market strains (AllianzGI)

We expect the Bank of England to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% at its September meeting. Since the July meeting, UK economic data have confirmed an improvement in the growth outlook, while...

United States: the dollar could be the first casualty of bond-yield manipulation

The question is worth asking as the US Treasury has already increased, for the second month in a row, the size of its Treasury buyback program, even though that increase does not yet amount to an...