Analysis: Interest Rates

Donald Trump Is Not Done With the Fed

Despite Kevin Warsh's arrival, political pressure remains intense.

AI, the Fed and the Yen: the new equation for the US markets

For Swiss private bank J. Safra Sarasin, the US economy continues to grow more strongly than expected. Consumers are maintaining spending steady despite higher energy costs, supported by generous tax...

When the bond market twists Washington's arm

The yen's weakness risked putting even more pressure on the US bond market.

The Fed In Passenger Seat

Does Kevin Warsh want to outsource monetary policy to the market?

Bank of England Leaves Base Rate Unchanged

The Bank of England said its Monetary Policy Committee voted at yesterday's meeting to keep its key rate at 3.75%, by a six-to-three majority. Three members would have preferred a 0.25% increase to...

Fed: Warsh promises the impossible, leaving the markets in the fog

Kevin Warsh used his press conference to reaffirm the Federal Reserve's determination to bring inflation back towards 2%, while stopping short of clarifying the interest-rate path. After 5 years of...

The ECB Keeps Key Interest Rates Unchanged

As economists had expected, the ECB's Governing Council today decided to leave its three key policy rates unchanged, noting that the outlook for energy price developments, while highly volatile, is...

Oil Reignites the Fuse in Bond Markets

Global bond markets are facing a fresh wave of selling that is pushing sovereign yields towards levels rarely seen since the financial crisis.

A summer pause for the ECB

The ECB is expected to keep its rates unchanged on Thursday. However, investors are pricing in one or two additional rate hikes over the coming months.

Christopher Waller, the Fed governor to watch

Just a few months ago, Christopher Waller was arguing for rate cuts. Now, he is leaving the door open to tighter monetary policy.

Treasuries Face New Competition

Tech companies have kicked off a big race for capital to finance their pivot to AI.

The Fed is Not Just Another Agency

The Supreme Court handed Donald Trump a victory yesterday. The American president will be able to fire the heads of independent agencies at his discretion. With one notable exception: the Fed.

A Less Transparent Fed: Markets Face a Revolution

For years, the Fed has sought to guide market expectations. Kevin Warsh wants to end that logic.

Fed edges closer to a rate hike

The Fed has a dual mandate, but now faces only one problem: inflation.

ECB: Is a rate hike certain for next week?

The answer is almost. The 25bp hike expected to be made by the European Central Bank on June 11 is the subject of a rare consensus within the Governing Council, even amongst its most dovish members....

ECB poised for action

After a year-long pause, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting on June 11.

Rates keep going up. And the trend may not be over yet

Markets frequently test incoming Fed Chairs.

For the Fed, inflationary risk has regained the upper hand

The question is no longer when to cut rates, but rather whether they must be raised.

Rate hikes set for June

Rhetoric is no longer enough; it's now time for action.