As the week starts, investors are coming to terms with the fact that rules just changed again. After the Supreme Court struck down much of Donald Trump's tariff regime on Friday, the White House responded by announcing a new global tariff - first 10%, then 15% - under a different legal authority. The new levy could last up to five months while the administration searches for something more permanent.

Stock futures slipped early Monday on renewed uncertainty. The dollar stayed under pressure. Treasury yields edged lower. Oil fell back as the U.S. and Iran prepared for another round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Gold climbed above $5,100 an ounce, helped by a softer dollar and a world that feels less predictable by the hour. Base metals drifted lower. Even bitcoin slid.

The core issue isn't whether tariffs are good or bad in theory. It's that businesses don't know what the playing field looks like. As one investor put it, how do you plan supply chains when you're not sure what the tariff rate will be next month, or next week? The Supreme Court ruled that the administration overreached by using emergency powers to impose sweeping duties. The White House has now shifted to another statute, one that is slower and more limited. But it has also signaled that it intends to keep the pressure on.

There are practical consequences. U.S. Customs is set to stop collecting certain "reciprocal" tariffs. Questions linger over whether companies might receive refunds for duties deemed unlawful. The European Union has paused ratification of a compromise trade deal. India has delayed negotiations. China is “assessing." Japan sounds mildly relieved. The U.S. trade representative insists that bilateral deals remain intact.

Markets had briefly embraced what traders jokingly call "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), the idea that threats escalate but Wall Street ultimately lands on its feet. That logic worked last week, when the S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq snapped a five-week losing streak, even as the Court dealt the administration a legal blow. This morning feels different, however.

The focus this week is also on Nvidia, which reports earnings Wednesday. That single event may matter more than any speech from Washington. The chip giant, now the world's most valuable company, is under pressure to prove that the massive spending on artificial intelligence is translating into durable profits. Investors have grown skeptical. The S&P software and services index has fallen more than 20% this year amid concerns that AI disruption is moving faster than earnings can keep up.

Nvidia is also trying to return to consumer PCs, supplying laptop chips to Dell and Lenovo. The near-term profits may be modest. The long-term ambition is not.

Later in the week, Salesforce, Intuit, Dell, and CoreWeave will offer further clues about the health of enterprise tech. In Europe, heavyweights from HSBC to Rolls-Royce report results.

Meanwhile, U.S. factory orders for December are due. Fresh inflation data will arrive at week's end. Federal Reserve officials will speak. Investors are trying to guess the timing of the next interest-rate cut, while also watching President Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday for signals on trade, industry, and perhaps the dollar itself. 

And hovering over it all: U.S.–Iran talks. Oil fell Monday after last week's rally, as traders judged that even a potential U.S. strike would have limited long-term impact on supply. When negotiations resume in Geneva, the market will be listening.

In other corporate news, Domino's Pizza beat expectations on U.S. same-store sales, sending shares higher in premarket trading. Dominion Energy reports this morning. Hims & Hers reports after the close.

Eli Lilly rose after rival Novo Nordisk said its experimental obesity drug failed to outperform Lilly's Zepbound in a head-to-head trial. Novo's shares fell sharply in Denmark, Lilly's gained. Merck is splitting its human-health division in two, separating its cancer portfolio, including Keytruda, which accounts for nearly half its sales, as it prepares for patent expiration later this decade.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany; in the United States, Fed Waller's speech, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Factory Orders MoM, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index; ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,590
  • Gold: $5,153
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $71.25 (WTI) $66.01
  • United States 10 years: 4.09%
  • BITCOIN: $66,434

In corporate news:

  • Ford Motor, General Motors, Honda Motor and Mercedes-Benz are advancing Level 3 “eyes-off" driving systems despite high costs, safety and liability concerns, and competitive pressure from Chinese automakers like BYD and Leapmotor.
  • Wall Street is set to open slightly lower amid renewed tariff uncertainty after new levies from President Trump, while Eli Lilly shares rise as Novo Nordisk's obesity drug underperforms in a head-to-head trial.
  • Chevron has agreed with Iraq's Basra Oil Company to exchange data and enter exclusive talks over the West Qurna 2 oilfield following Iraq's nationalization of the asset from Lukoil.
  • HSBC argues that fears of AI replacing enterprise software are overblown and sees the sector as a key long-term beneficiary, highlighting companies such as Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Nvidia, CoreWeave and Oracle.
  • JPMorgan Chase said it closed Donald Trump's bank accounts in 2021, a move now central to Trump's $5 billion lawsuit against the bank and CEO Jamie Dimon.
  • President Trump urged Netflix to remove board member Susan Rice or “pay the consequences," as the company seeks approval for its acquisition of Warner Bros. assets.
  • Cisco Systems and SharonAI, in partnership with Nvidia, launched a Cisco Secure AI Factory in Australia powered by 1,024 Nvidia Blackwell Ultra GPUs.
  • Microsoft-backed OpenAI projects revenue exceeding $280 billion by 2030 and plans to invest about $600 billion in infrastructure over the period.
  • KKR has agreed to acquire a majority stake in XCL Education in a deal valuing the Southeast Asian school operator at about $1.3 billion, buying out TPG.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court is weighing cases involving Exxon Mobil and cruise operators Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line and MSC Cruises over compensation claims tied to confiscated Cuban property under the Helms-Burton Act.
  • European shares edged lower amid renewed U.S. trade uncertainty, with Novo Nordisk falling sharply after trial results, while Enel rose on plans to boost investment and shareholder returns and Johnson Matthey slumped after cutting the sale price of its catalyst unit to Honeywell.
  • The UK's MHRA approved brensocatib as the first treatment specifically for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis in patients aged 12 and older.
  • Honeywell reduced the purchase price for Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies unit to about £1.33 billion and extended the deal deadline, with the acquisition expected to be accretive to earnings.
  • Britain named former Amazon executive Doug Gurr as permanent chair of the Competition and Markets Authority for a five-year term.
  • Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 fourth-quarter oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI on lower OECD inventories, while still expecting a supply surplus.
  • Halliburton and Pertamina signed an agreement to expand advanced drilling and stimulation technologies in Indonesia.
  • ConocoPhillips is exploring the sale of Permian Basin assets worth around $2 billion as part of a broader portfolio review following its acquisition of Marathon Oil.
  • Tesla loses $243 million verdict in Autopilot accident lawsuit.
  • Google (Alphabet) is in talks to invest around $100 million in startup Fluidstack, according to the WSJ.
  • OpenAI expects to consume $112 billion more than expected by 2030, according to The Information.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Alphabet Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 354 to USD 387.
  • Blackrock, Inc.: UBS upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 1280.
  • Deere & Company: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from hold with a price target raised from USD 475 to USD 550.
  • Nvidia Corporation: Aletheia Capital Limited upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of USD 250.
  • V.f. Corporation: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 19 to USD 18.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 128 to USD 102.
  • Adobe Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 400 to USD 290.
  • Analog Devices, Inc.: KGI Securities Co Ltd maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 285 to USD 375.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD maintains its add recommendation and raises the target price from USD 263 to USD 420.
  • Autodesk, Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 375 to USD 285.
  • Ciena Corporation: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 213 to USD 280.
  • Corning Incorporated: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 103 to USD 127.
  • Elastic N.v.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 100 to USD 78.
  • Factset Research Systems, Inc.: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 300 to USD 210.
  • Intuit Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 785 to USD 540.
  • Ionq, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 58 to USD 35.
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: GF Securities Co. Ltd. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 550 to USD 765.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: SinoPac Securities maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 90 to USD 120.
  • Salesforce, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 338 to USD 265.
  • Texas Pacific Land Corporation: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1050 to USD 639.
  • Vertiv Holdings Co: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 207.40 to USD 271.17.
  • Zscaler, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 325 to USD 250.