Projected Income Statement: XP Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 28,390 5,141 5,632 3,555 -10,119 -25,210 -22,785 -26,656
Change - -81.89% 9.55% -36.88% -384.64% -149.14% 9.62% -16.99%
Announcement Date 2/8/22 A 2/16/23 A 2/27/24 A 2/18/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 353 127 196.2 330.2 489.6 649.7 680.1 756.8
Change - -64.03% 54.54% 68.28% 48.26% 32.7% 4.68% 11.28%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -4,373 1,677 7,931 10,849 11,836 12,938 14,773 12,697
Change - 138.34% 372.96% 36.79% 9.1% 9.31% 14.18% -14.05%
Announcement Date 2/8/22 A 2/16/23 A 2/27/24 A 2/18/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: XP Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 34.69% 30.45% 31.84% 34.96% 34.06% 32.5% 34.55% 34.72%
EBIT Margin (%) 32.77% 28.91% 30.15% 33.41% 32.41% 30.42% 32.47% 32.65%
EBT Margin (%) 36.28% 25.81% 26.49% 29.2% 29.59% 29.48% 31.25% 31.94%
Net margin (%) 29.72% 26.82% 26.24% 26.44% 28.07% 29.01% 27.75% 28.23%
FCF margin (%) -36.21% 12.56% 53.37% 63.52% 64.28% 64.28% 65.91% 50.61%
FCF / Net Income (%) -121.84% 46.84% 203.41% 240.28% 228.97% 221.62% 237.49% 179.27%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.05% 2.16% 2.5% 1.51% 1.39% 1.3% 1.27% 1.26%
ROE 28.36% 22.76% 21.4% 23% 23.72% 22.75% 22.76% 22.87%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 6.78x 1.26x 1.19x 0.6x - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow -6.49x 3.07x 0.71x 0.33x - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.92% 0.95% 1.32% 1.93% 2.66% 3.23% 3.03% 3.02%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 8.43% 3.12% 4.15% 5.53% 7.81% 9.93% 8.78% 8.69%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -8.07% 7.57% 2.47% 3.04% 4.14% 5.02% 4.6% 5.96%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -7.01 3.148 14.93 20.39 22.64 30.72 0.5586 11.82
Change - 144.91% 374.38% 36.52% 11.05% 35.68% -98.18% 2,016.28%
Dividend per Share 1 - - 6.459 3.774 - 7.51 7.777 8.547
Change - - - -41.57% - - 3.55% 9.91%
Book Value Per Share 1 25.77 30.67 35.46 37.13 43.71 49.7 56.23 63.5
Change - 19.04% 15.62% 4.7% 17.71% 13.72% 13.12% 12.94%
EPS 1 6.259 6.25 7.16 8.231 9.719 10.69 12.1 13.27
Change - -0.14% 14.56% 14.96% 18.07% 9.97% 13.24% 9.63%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 559,549 560,294 548,083 537,004 528,220 507,483 507,483 507,483
Announcement Date 2/8/22 A 2/16/23 A 2/27/24 A 2/18/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 8x 7.06x
PBR 1.72x 1.52x
EV / Sales 0.9x 0.92x
Yield 8.78% 9.1%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
85.51BRL
Average target price
114.13BRL
Spread / Average Target
+33.48%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise