Projected Income Statement: Orica Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Orica Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet - Orica Limited
Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,739 1,152 1,220 1,940 2,258 2,443 2,205 1,952
Change - -33.76% 5.9% 59.02% 16.39% 8.19% -9.74% -11.47%
Announcement Date 11/10/21 A 11/8/22 A 11/8/23 A 11/13/24 A 11/12/25 A - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Orica Limited

Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 305.4 319.1 439.1 456.4 414.5 452.7 463.7 480.1
Change - 4.49% 37.61% 3.94% -9.18% 9.21% 2.44% 3.54%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 313.5 43.2 459.6 351.1 534.7 305.5 871.2 1,066
Change - -86.22% 963.89% -23.61% 52.29% -42.87% 185.19% 22.34%
Announcement Date 11/10/21 A 11/8/22 A 11/8/23 A 11/13/24 A 11/12/25 A - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Orica Limited

Fiscal Period: September 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.02% 13.16% 13.73% 16.15% 18.31% 19.18% 19.73% 20.16%
EBIT Margin (%) 7.51% 7.89% 8.79% 10.51% 12.18% 12.84% 13.49% 13.97%
EBT Margin (%) -2.34% 2.79% 4.82% 5.79% 5.25% 9.31% 11.08% 11.7%
Net margin (%) -3.06% 0.82% 3.72% 6.85% 1.99% 3.31% 7.63% 8.13%
FCF margin (%) 5.52% 0.59% 5.78% 4.58% 6.57% 3.76% 10.36% 12.32%
FCF / Net Income (%) -180.38% 71.88% 155.43% 66.93% 329.45% 113.77% 135.65% 151.57%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.68% 4.03% 4.31% 4.46% 5.54% 7.77% 9.04% 9.53%
ROE 7.42% 9.89% 9.62% 9.69% 12.53% 14.46% 16.25% 16.71%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.18x 1.19x 1.12x 1.57x 1.51x 1.57x 1.33x 1.12x
Debt / Free cash flow 5.55x 26.66x 2.65x 5.53x 4.22x 8x 2.53x 1.83x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.37% 4.35% 5.53% 5.96% 5.09% 5.58% 5.51% 5.55%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 38.35% 33.09% 40.26% 36.88% 27.8% 29.08% 27.94% 27.53%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 97.42% 738.66% 95.54% 129.99% 77.52% 148.19% 53.23% 45.05%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.522 0.8681 1.979 1.684 1.94 1.408 2.532 2.691
Change - -42.95% 127.92% -14.86% 15.18% -27.43% 79.81% 6.3%
Dividend per Share 1 0.24 0.35 0.43 0.47 0.57 0.6275 0.721 0.7974
Change - 45.83% 22.86% 9.3% 21.28% 10.09% 14.9% 10.59%
Book Value Per Share 1 6.69 8.14 8.757 9.156 8.913 8.123 8.635 9.103
Change - 21.67% 7.58% 4.56% -2.65% -8.87% 6.3% 5.42%
EPS 1 -0.427 0.145 0.645 0.854 0.332 0.8626 1.382 1.524
Change - 133.96% 344.83% 32.4% -61.12% 159.82% 60.25% 10.26%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 407,513 455,494 455,492 487,010 467,564 463,543 463,543 463,543
Announcement Date 11/10/21 A 11/8/22 A 11/8/23 A 11/13/24 A 11/12/25 A - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 26.4x 16.5x
PBR 2.81x 2.64x
EV / Sales 1.6x 1.52x
Yield 2.75% 3.16%

EPS & Dividend

EPS & Dividend - Orica Limited


Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Valuation ratios - P/E - Orica Limited
 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Valuation ratios - Yield - Orica Limited
Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
MarketScreener Ratings - Orica Limited
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
22.80AUD
Average target price
25.91AUD
Spread / Average Target
+13.66%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

Rate of surprise - Net sales - Quarterly - Orica Limited
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