Energy: The market remains buffeted by geopolitics. On Friday, prices tumbled as the market bet on a possible resolution to the conflict, before rebounding at the start of this week following fresh signs of failed talks between the United States and Iran. Talks to end the Middle East conflict have indeed stalled, with conflicting messages from both sides. US President Donald Trump maintains that discussions are ongoing, while Iran has adopted a firm stance, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas exports previously passed, remains largely closed, limiting transported volumes. This key transit point, combined with Iranian threats in the Bab el-Mandeb – another major bottleneck for energy trade toward the Red Sea – continues to fuel market tensions. 

Metals: Gold began a rebound late last week, supported by reports of a potential ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. A weaker dollar and falling US bond yields also contributed to this recovery. However, markets remain cautious regarding the sustainability of diplomatic progress. Concerns over rising energy prices continue to fuel inflationary risks, which could bolster expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period. This outlook is generally unfavorable for gold, an asset with no yield. Meanwhile, it's more of the same in London. Copper is stabilizing at $13,800 per tonne. The sideways trading pattern persists pending an outcome in the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran.

Agricultural Products: Wheat eased slightly in Chicago to 615 cents (July 2026 contract). The underlying trend remains positive as yields are expected to decline, with wheat crops having suffered from drought in the United States. Conversely, other major global producers are showing more optimistic harvest forecasts, which limits the short-term upside potential for prices. Corn also lost ground to 444 cents (July 2026 contract), affected by the bearish impact of oil prices on biofuels. Soybeans are stabilizing at 1,200 cents (also for the July 2026 contract). Cocoa is making headlines again with a gain of nearly 10% last week. This fresh price surge is primarily driven by concerns over weather conditions in West Africa.