Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 78,658 86,419 79,932
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 20.84% 9.87% -7.51%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 A 2/10/23 A 2/14/24 A 2/14/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 31,763 24,681 13,424
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 204.57% -22.3% -45.61%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 9,675 3,203 20,345
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -74.79% -66.89% 535.14%
Announcement Date 2/15/22 A 2/10/23 A 2/14/24 A 2/14/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 11.52% 8.16% 8.59%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 9.92% 5.9% 6.02%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 8.9% 4.83% 4.95%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 7.28% 4.17% 4.2%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% 1.96% 0.74% 4.24%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% 26.86% 17.79% 100.87%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 8.21% 3.51% 3.75%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 19.52% 8.38% 8.84%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 1.38x 2.45x 1.94x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x 8.13x 26.98x 3.93x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 6.42% 5.71% 2.79%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 55.76% 69.97% 32.52%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% 328.3% 770.52% 65.98%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 19.47 13.49 16.7
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -10.9% -30.71% 23.84%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 4.85 3.208 4.052
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 169.47% -33.86% 26.32%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 93.41 97.76 105.1
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 21.36% 4.65% 7.56%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 16.24 7.714 8.464
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 148.72% -52.5% 9.73%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 2/15/22 A 2/10/23 A 2/14/24 A 2/14/25 A 2/12/26 A - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.26x 8.98x
PBR 0.74x 0.71x
EV / Sales 0.47x 0.56x
Yield 7% 4.63%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
69.25THB
Average target price
72.30THB
Spread / Average Target
+4.40%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise