Crude oil prices finished the week ending June 6 on a strong note, with benchmark ICE Brent futures heading for a close above $66 per barrel in a weekly gain of more than 3% – as fresh optimism over potential US-China trade talks lifted market sentiment. China ceased all imports of US crude in March but continues to source from elsewhere; a far cry from the heady days of 2020 when Beijing was importing 481,000 barrels per day (bpd) of US crude.

According to OilPrice, investors welcomed news that diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing appear to be reopening albeit in the opinion of some, at glacial speed. As such, though concrete outcomes remain uncertain, the prospect of resumed negotiations helped buoy commodities markets, with Brent crude responding favourably. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions – particularly involving Iran and Russia – have helped to temper some of the bullish enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the already fragile US-Iran diplomatic track appears to have broken down further and the effects this may have on international supply chains and subsequently prices remains unclear.

Of note on these price fluctuations, in the Middle East, Saudi Aramco announced a modest reduction in oil prices for its Asian customers. As such, prices for lighter crude grades were cut by $0.20 per barrel, and Arab Medium was also reduced by $0.10 per barrel; in effect pushing prices back down to the levels seen in May. Aramco cited healthy regional demand as well as relatively low inventory levels for the decision at this time.

North of the Aramco fields, meanwhile, tensions within Iraq also made headlines affecting prices, as the national Oil Ministry accused the Kurdish Regional Government of facilitating large-scale oil smuggling OilPrice reports. While the US and China in particular typically hold off on commenting on such issues – Beijing citing its reluctance to get involved in domestic affairs – there is some concern in Asia as to how this may play out even with the figures said to be involved relatively small.

Baghdad estimates at least 150,000 bpd are being diverted illegally. “We hold the Kurdish Regional Government legally responsible,” said the Ministry, in a sharply worded statement, underscoring the deepening rift between Erbil and Baghdad.

Meanwhile, China’s independent teapot refiners, often dependent upon less popular suppliers for their own crude deliveries are opting to reduce their intake of Iranian oil, with purchases falling 20% from the first quarter of 2025. While the shift does not initially appear to be driven by US sanctions, rather by high pricing, Iranian crude is currently trading at a narrow discount of around $3 per barrel compared to Brent; not quite enough to risk US repercussions for most.

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