Projected Income Statement: Aramco

Forecast Balance Sheet: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 184,269 -114,118 -93,169 89,462 68,511 200,453 193,703 12,000
Change - -161.93% 18.36% 196.02% -23.42% 192.59% -3.37% -93.8%
Announcement Date 3/21/22 A 3/13/23 A 3/10/24 A 3/4/25 A 3/10/26 A - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 119,645 141,161 158,308 188,890 190,444 198,907 186,415 175,137
Change - 17.98% 12.15% 19.32% 0.82% 4.44% -6.28% -6.05%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 402,956 556,991 379,506 319,998 320,354 320,566 340,989 354,282
Change - 38.23% -31.86% -15.68% 0.11% 0.07% 6.37% 3.9%
Announcement Date 3/21/22 A 3/13/23 A 3/10/24 A 3/4/25 A 3/10/26 A - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 57.1% 54.52% 52% 48.72% 47.86% 47.54% 52.92% 57.25%
EBIT Margin (%) 51.4% 50.48% 46.77% 43% 42.29% 42.97% 47.46% 51.53%
EBT Margin (%) 51.24% 50.87% 47.84% 43.4% 42.06% 43.65% 45.69% 50.29%
Net margin (%) 26.32% 26.35% 24.39% 21.86% 20.83% 22.06% 24.24% 24.98%
FCF margin (%) 26.83% 24.58% 20.44% 17.76% 19.17% 17.57% 19.8% 21.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 101.96% 93.26% 83.82% 81.24% 92.04% 79.61% 81.67% 86.19%

Profitability

        
ROA 19.39% 25.66% 18.22% 16.07% 13.99% 15.2% 14.98% 15.26%
ROE 37.56% 46.62% 30.35% 26.32% 23.59% 24.74% 24.79% 24.84%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.21x - - 0.1x 0.09x 0.23x 0.21x 0.01x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.46x - - 0.28x 0.21x 0.63x 0.57x 0.03x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.97% 6.23% 8.53% 10.48% 11.4% 10.9% 10.82% 10.65%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 13.95% 11.42% 16.4% 21.52% 23.81% 22.93% 20.46% 18.59%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 29.69% 25.34% 41.71% 59.03% 59.45% 62.05% 54.67% 49.43%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.16 2.886 2.223 2.104 2.112 2.451 2.266 2.286
Change - 33.58% -22.98% -5.36% 0.38% 16.04% -7.54% 0.9%
Dividend per Share 1 1.157 1.191 1.695 1.776 1.325 1.37 1.463 1.529
Change - 2.93% 42.3% 4.78% -25.39% 3.4% 6.78% 4.5%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.602 5.99 6.343 6.028 6.168 6.498 6.718 7.267
Change - 30.15% 5.9% -4.96% 2.32% 5.34% 3.39% 8.16%
EPS 1 1.636 2.473 1.87 1.63 1.44 1.591 1.708 1.742
Change - 51.11% -24.38% -12.83% -11.66% 10.51% 7.33% 1.96%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 241,858,445 241,893,399 241,907,556 241,948,700 241,854,700 241,907,400 241,907,400 241,907,400
Announcement Date 3/21/22 A 3/13/23 A 3/10/24 A 3/4/25 A 3/10/26 A - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 17.3x 16.1x
PBR 4.24x 4.1x
EV / Sales 3.76x 3.98x
Yield 4.98% 5.32%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
27.52SAR
Average target price
29.05SAR
Spread / Average Target
+5.54%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise