Projected Income Statement: Almarai Company

Forecast Balance Sheet: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 9,203 9,521 9,887 10,140 12,516 13,224 13,233 11,907
Change - 3.46% 3.84% 2.56% 23.43% 5.65% 0.07% -10.02%
Announcement Date 1/23/22 A 1/23/23 A 1/21/24 A 1/20/25 A 1/18/26 A - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,088 1,301 2,506 4,834 5,387 4,176 3,667 3,017
Change - 19.55% 92.68% 92.92% 11.43% -22.48% -12.19% -17.72%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,827 2,529 1,977 1,194 -503.2 916.3 1,846 2,718
Change - -33.93% -21.83% -39.59% -142.14% 282.08% 101.5% 47.23%
Announcement Date 1/23/22 A 1/23/23 A 1/21/24 A 1/20/25 A 1/18/26 A - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Almarai Company

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.9% 22.73% 23.2% 23.31% 25.38% 21.73% 22.02% 22.37%
EBIT Margin (%) 13.33% 13.12% 14.26% 15.07% 14.03% 13.52% 13.88% 14.17%
EBT Margin (%) 10.52% 9.88% 11.06% 11.74% 11.77% 11.29% 11.72% 12.31%
Net margin (%) 9.87% 9.4% 10.47% 11.03% 11.13% 10.61% 11% 11.53%
FCF margin (%) 24.15% 13.51% 10.1% 5.69% -2.28% 3.85% 7.32% 10.2%
FCF / Net Income (%) 244.71% 143.7% 96.47% 51.62% -20.49% 36.34% 66.52% 88.5%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.88% 5.51% 6% 6.45% 6.5% 5.7% 6.26% 6.3%
ROE 9.83% 10.73% 11.89% 12.64% 12.49% 12.06% 12.47% 13.08%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.43x 2.24x 2.18x 2.07x 2.24x 2.56x 2.38x 2x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.4x 3.77x 5x 8.49x -24.87x 14.43x 7.17x 4.38x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 6.86% 6.95% 12.8% 23.04% 24.41% 17.56% 14.53% 11.32%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 28.72% 30.56% 55.18% 98.86% 96.19% 80.83% 66% 50.62%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 28.42% 51.43% 126.77% 404.87% -1,070.44% 455.75% 198.61% 111%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 4.915 3.829 4.483 6.028 5.463 4.651 5.415 6.028
Change - -22.09% 17.06% 34.49% -9.38% -14.87% 16.45% 11.31%
Dividend per Share 1 1 1 1 1 1.15 1.163 1.215 1.315
Change - 0% 0% 0% 15% 1.12% 4.5% 8.19%
Book Value Per Share 1 16.12 16.67 17.8 18.79 20.53 21.48 23.02 24.59
Change - 3.43% 6.76% 5.58% 9.24% 4.63% 7.18% 6.83%
EPS 1 1.59 1.76 2.05 2.31 2.48 2.517 2.786 3.11
Change - 10.69% 16.48% 12.68% 7.36% 1.48% 10.71% 11.64%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000
Announcement Date 1/23/22 A 1/23/23 A 1/21/24 A 1/20/25 A 1/18/26 A - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 19.5x 17.6x
PBR 2.28x 2.13x
EV / Sales 2.62x 2.47x
Yield 2.37% 2.48%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
16
Last Close Price
49.00SAR
Average target price
57.67SAR
Spread / Average Target
+17.69%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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