Projected Income Statement: AAK AB

Forecast Balance Sheet: AAK AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 3,817 5,707 2,425 1,696 3,358 3,678 3,145 2,239
Change - 49.52% -57.51% -30.06% 98% 9.53% -14.49% -28.81%
Announcement Date 2/4/22 A 2/2/23 A 2/7/24 A 2/5/25 A 2/5/26 A - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: AAK AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 619 1,226 1,245 1,245 1,303 1,504 1,447 1,491
Change - 98.06% 1.55% 0% 4.66% 15.4% -3.8% 3.1%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -111 -1,299 4,069 1,107 -441 2,606 3,195 3,570
Change - -1,070.27% 413.24% -72.79% -139.84% 690.93% 22.61% 11.74%
Announcement Date 2/4/22 A 2/2/23 A 2/7/24 A 2/5/25 A 2/5/26 A - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: AAK AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.59% 6.62% 10.85% 12.78% 12.07% 12.9% 13.12% 13.33%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.75% 5.03% 8.94% 10.87% 10.16% 11.02% 11.25% 11.48%
EBT Margin (%) 5.6% 4.66% 8.31% 10.34% 9.79% 10.71% 11.04% 11.3%
Net margin (%) 4.05% 3.51% 6.4% 7.85% 7.45% 8.11% 8.35% 8.55%
FCF margin (%) -0.31% -2.58% 8.84% 2.46% -0.96% 5.53% 6.41% 6.86%
FCF / Net Income (%) -7.72% -73.39% 138.12% 31.31% -12.86% 68.16% 76.76% 80.24%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.81% 5.79% 9.13% 10.89% - - - -
ROE 13.38% 13.2% 18.32% 19.01% 17.15% 18.61% 18.85% 18.32%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.25x 1.71x 0.49x 0.29x 0.6x 0.6x 0.48x 0.32x
Debt / Free cash flow -34.39x -4.39x 0.6x 1.53x -7.61x 1.41x 0.98x 0.63x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.75% 2.43% 2.7% 2.76% 2.83% 3.19% 2.9% 2.86%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.32% 36.74% 24.93% 21.62% 23.45% 24.73% 22.11% 21.48%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -557.66% -94.38% 30.6% 112.47% -295.46% 57.7% 45.27% 41.77%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.965 -0.2812 20.47 9.062 3.31 16.78 16.61 18.59
Change - -114.31% 7,380.65% -55.74% -63.48% 407.15% -1.04% 11.93%
Dividend per Share 1 2.5 2.75 3.7 5 9.35 5.991 6.495 6.916
Change - 10% 34.55% 35.14% 87% -35.92% 8.41% 6.49%
Book Value Per Share 1 45.58 57.93 65.95 77.39 76.39 81.44 90.3 100.1
Change - 27.09% 13.85% 17.35% -1.29% 6.61% 10.88% 10.84%
EPS 1 5.57 6.84 11.35 13.62 13.21 14.69 16.08 17.26
Change - 22.8% 65.94% 20% -3.01% 11.17% 9.49% 7.32%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 258,501 259,559 259,559 259,559 260,451 261,886 261,886 261,886
Announcement Date 2/4/22 A 2/2/23 A 2/7/24 A 2/5/25 A 2/5/26 A - - -
1SEK
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 16.6x 15.2x
PBR 3x 2.7x
EV / Sales 1.43x 1.34x
Yield 2.46% 2.66%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AAA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
10
Last Close Price
244.00SEK
Average target price
299.00SEK
Spread / Average Target
+22.54%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise