U.S., Israeli Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program, Watchdog Says -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is up 0.5% to $110.57 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is up 1.8% to 44.37 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Copper futures are up 1.5% to $13,524 a metric ton.

--Gold futures are up 0.5% at $4,732 a troy ounce.

TOP STORY:

U.S., Israeli Strikes Set Back Iran's Nuclear Program

Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure have set back Tehran's ability to build a nuclear weapon and likely extended the timeline for producing a bomb, according to a new report by the Institute for Science and International Security.

The watchdog said at least six nuclear sites have been hit since the conflict started on Feb. 28, including uranium enrichment facilities and locations tied to weaponization work. The attacks also killed Iranian nuclear scientists, although the number remains unclear.

OTHER STORIES:

Venezuela's State Oil Company Taps White & Case Ahead of Restructuring Talks

Venezuela's state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela SA, has hired law firm White & Case to protect its interests in the pending Citgo Petroleum sale as the country girds for a debt restructuring, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday authorized Venezuela and PdVSA to hire advisers to help execute what is considered one of the largest and most complex sovereign-debt restructurings in history. The debt-ridden South American country, which holds some of the world's largest oil and gas reserves, is estimated to owe more than $100 billion to pay holders of defaulted government bonds.

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Iranian Navy Seized Chinese-Owned Oil Tanker, Iran State Media Says

Iranian state media posted a video showing the Iranian navy boarding a Chinese-owned oil tanker named Ocean Koi in what it described as a special operation. The tanker "attempted to disrupt Iran's oil exports and national interests," according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.

The seizure happened in the Sea of Oman. Ocean Koi, now named Jin Li, contains oil cargo from Iran, according to IRIB. The Iranian navy directed her to the southern coast of Iran and handed her over to the authorities.

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Algonquin Power & Utilities 1Q Profit Slips

Algonquin Power & Utilities reported lower first-quarter profit on weaker earnings at its Missouri-based Empire District Electric unit.

The Canadian regulated utility company on Friday posted net income of $83.1 million, or 11 cents a share, down from $92.8 million, or 12 cents a share, in the comparable quarter a year ago.

MARKET TALKS:

Cocoa Price Gains Driven by Weather Concerns -- Market Talk

1121 GMT - Cocoa prices are headed for a weekly gain of more than 20%, driven by concerns over the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon and higher fertilizer costs due to the Iran war. Cocoa futures are trading above $4,350 a metric ton after rising past $4,400 earlier in the session, their highest since January. "Hotter and drier conditions associated with El Nino raise risks for West Africa and Indonesia at a critical stage of the crop cycle," analysts at ING say. "Elevated fertilizer and fuel costs continue to weigh on farmers in Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana, while analysts have revised lower global surplus forecasts amid growing confidence in a stronger El Nino." ([e-mail])

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Central-Bank Buying Supports Gold Prices But Further Gains Are Capped -- Market Talk

1107 GMT - Gold prices are supported by renewed buying interest and safe-haven demand, though further gains are capped by elevated real yields and prospects of higher interest rates for longer. In afternoon trading, futures in New York rise 0.4% to $4,728.90 a troy ounce, on track for a weekly gain of 1.8%. "China's central bank remains a key structural support," ING analysts say. "The People's Bank of China reported its largest monthly gold purchase in over a year in April, extending its accumulation for an 18th consecutive month." Still, the upside remains constrained by a still-restrictive macroeconomic environment, including elevated real yields, a strong U.S. dollar, and reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve easing. ([e-mail])

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Oil Broadly Rangebound, With Focus on Peace Efforts

1052 GMT - Oil prices are broadly rangebound as traders await updates on U.S.-Iran peace negotiations after the two sides exchanged fire, raising concerns over an already fragile cease-fire. "Even in the event of an agreement, oil prices are likely to fall only to a limited extent, because the situation remains fundamentally unstable and production and exports in the region will recover only gradually," analysts at Commerzbank say. "In any case, the strait is likely to remain a critical choke point for the time being, which justifies a risk premium." Brent crude is up 0.2% to $100.24 a barrel after briefly slipping below $100, while WTI is flat at $94.83 a barrel. The benchmarks are on track for weekly losses of more than 7%.([e-mail])

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German Energy-Intensive Production Could Hold Up Despite War -- Market Talk

1040 GMT - Energy-intensive production in Germany could prove resilient in the coming months despite the Iran war's impact, Capital Economics' Franziska Palmas says in a note. Industrial production overall fell 0.7% on month in March, though energy-intensive output rose by 1.2%. That came potentially as industrial electricity prices were actually little changed in March, she says. This could continue in April as those prices edged further down, she says. German industry could also be less vulnerable to the current surge in energy costs than 2022, as some of the least efficient operations have been permanently closed. More generally, structural headwinds, including weak European demand and increased Chinese competition, mean output is likely to remain weak regardless of developments in the Middle East, Palmas says. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid Profit-Taking -- Market Talk

1007 GMT - Palm oil ended lower. Some investors could be taking profit after solid gains this week, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a research note. Renewed escalation of tensions in the Middle East might also have unsettled investors, although firmer crude oil prices during Asian trading hours could help cushion the downside, they point out. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery fell 43 ringgit to 4,498 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Above $4,700 on Central-Bank Buying, Middle East Tensions -- Market Talk

0749 GMT - Gold prices trade above $4,700 a troy ounce, supported by central-bank buying and as investors monitor Middle East developments. "Gold's resilience during a period of exceptional equity-market strength points to continued central-bank demand, as well as lingering investor unease over inflation, economic growth and mounting fiscal debt concerns," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Futures in New York rise 0.1% to $4,715.20 a troy ounce and are on track for a weekly gain of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire, though President Trump said the cease-fire remains in place. The two parties are working with mediators to formulate a memorandum of understanding to restart negotiations aimed at ending the conflict. ([e-mail])

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Oil Trims Gains, but U.S.-Iran Attacks Keep Prices Elevated

0723 GMT - Oil prices trim earlier gains but remain elevated after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire, threatening an already-fragile cease-fire and casting doubt on peace negotiations. Despite the attacks, President Trump said the cease-fire remains in effect. In early European trading, Brent crude for July delivery is up 0.6% to $100.67 a barrel, while WTI futures for June rise 0.4% to $95.16 a barrel. The benchmarks rose more than 2% earlier in the session. "Brent crude trades firmer, holding above $100 after another volatile week that saw an almost $20 trading range as Middle East headlines swung sentiment between optimism and frustration," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "The key point remains unchanged: the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with renewed clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces lowering the prospect of a near-term reopening." ([e-mail])

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Iron Ore Higher, Supported by Stable Steel Mill Production -- Market Talk

0255 GMT - Iron ore is higher, supported by stable steel mill production, according to Baocheng Futures analysts in research note. Improved margins at mills also enhance the willingness and ability of mills to pay for iron ore, they note. However, demand might be softening as industrial imbalances in the steel market persist, they note. Further upside momentum remains to be seen and will depend closely on downstream steel performance, the analysts say. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.3% higher at 817.5 yuan a ton. ([e-mail])

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Copper Falls as Markets Weigh U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Prospects -- Market Talk

0135 GMT - Copper falls in early Asian trade, as traders weigh the prospects of a U.S.-Iran peace deal, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. The base metals market has remained volatile amid concerns that higher energy prices could pressure global economic growth. The war in the Middle East has also disrupted supplies of sulphuric acid, a key input in copper processing, affecting copper prices, ANZ adds. The three-month contract on the London Metal Exchange is down 0.4% at $13,346.50 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Corrections & Amplifications

This item was corrected at 10:27 a.m. ET to show that a report by the Institute for Science and International Security says the latest U.S.-Israeli strikes have likely extended the timeline for Iran's ability to produce a nuclear weapon. An earlier version incorrectly said said the timeline had likely been extended by between nine months and two years.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-08-26 0803ET