The increase of copper price estimates for 2026 reflects the strength in prices since the beginning of the year. Fitch still anticipates resilient demand despite a slowdown in energy transition policy implementation in certain developed markets, while supply growth from new projects remains constrained by particularly stringent permitting procedures.

Furthermore, short-term iron ore price assumptions have also been raised to reflect higher shipping and logistics costs, driven by energy cost increases relating to the war in Iran.

Coking coal price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 have been raised due to YTD price gains and tighter supply, a consequence of disruptions in Australia and a mining accident in China, while demand from steel producers remains robust. The increase in the mid-cycle price assumption also reflects rising production costs.

Strait of Hormuz: Global Aluminum Under Pressure

Aluminum price assumptions for 2026 and 2027 have been increased due to production declines in the Middle East following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and lower global inventory levels, factors expected to support prices into 2027 even if the strait reopens in 2026, in line with Fitch's base case. According to Wood Mackenzie (a global research and consultancy group providing data, written analysis, and advice to the energy, chemicals, renewables, metals, and mining industries), attacks on aluminum production infrastructure in the region and controlled shutdowns related to shipping disruptions have sidelined between 3m and 3.5m tonnes of annual capacity, representing approximately 4% to 4.8% of global capacity.

Additionally, new assumptions for zinc reflect recent supply deficits, logistical constraints, and disruptions to smelting operations. According to Wood Mackenzie, these factors are expected to lead to a 4.3% decline in mine production and a 0.7% drop in refined zinc production this year. However, Fitch estimates that these challenges should ease by 2027, with mine and refined production growing by 6.2% and 1.8% respectively, shifting the market into a surplus.

Gold price assumptions remain unchanged. In the short term, demand for platinum group metals is supported by increased investor interest in alternatives to gold and silver. Higher price assumptions for platinum and rhodium in 2026 reflect YTD price movements. Nevertheless, Fitch believes that in the longer term, prices should return to levels consistent with supply and demand fundamentals.

Thermal coal price assumptions for 2026 have been raised due to geopolitical tensions and increased demand from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Buyers have bolstered supplies to hedge against potential disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries, which particularly benefits Australian coal. Assumptions for 2027 have also been raised due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesian policy following the government's proposal to centralize coal exports.

The short-term increase in the nickel price assumption reflects price firmness since the start of the year. These are influenced by mining permit quotas imposed by the Indonesian government as well as the prospect of lower production linked to sulfur supply constraints, the transport of which largely depends on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

New assumptions for lithium reflect a tightening supply-demand balance, supported by stronger demand for energy storage systems and concerns over potential supply disruptions. Low inventory levels throughout the battery value chain and rising raw material costs also support this upward revision. However, Fitch emphasizes that prices are expected to remain highly volatile due to fears of a potential demand slowdown, persistent supply risks, and rising transport costs.

Finally, Fitch Ratings notes that the cobalt price assumption for 2026 has been raised to account for export restrictions implemented in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country that accounted for approximately three-quarters of global cobalt production in 2025, as well as a decline in Indonesian production linked to the rationalization of sulfur use.

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