Jefferies estimates that the escalation of the conflict in Iran since February 28, which has led to around an 8% increase in the price of oil, should only have a limited impact on global air traffic. The analyst points to the weak long-term correlation between oil prices and growth in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers), a measure of airline capacity.

In contrast, the broker believes that higher fuel costs could influence fleet management. Aircraft retirements appear to be strongly correlated with oil prices -  with a lag of around one year - with the correlation reaching 0.75 over the 1987-2025. As a result, high prices could accelerate the retirement of older aircraft in favor of new-generation models that are more fuel-efficient (sometimes as much as 20% more efficient).

The Middle East represents around 10% of global air traffic and 6% of the worldwide fleet. Against this backdrop, Jefferies forecasts 5.1% growth in global air traffic in 2026 (vs. 4.9% for IATA, the International Air Transport Association) and continued momentum in the maintenance and spare-parts market, supported by an aging global fleet.