Data Drought Breaks and Markets Brace for the Flood

After six weeks of government silence, America's statistical machinery is humming back to life. The country has just emerged from its longest-ever government shutdown, a political achievement only in the sense that it broke a record nobody wanted broken. Now, investors, policymakers and bored economists can once again look forward to the comforting rhythm of jobs figures, inflation prints and other indicators that help them pretend the world is predictable. They may not like what they see.

The upcoming September jobs report - delayed, digested and already half-guessed by private surveys - will likely confirm a softening labour market. Growth has not evaporated, but it is taking noticeably shorter breaths. The Fed, which spent much of the year signaling it was ready to start trimming rates, now finds itself in a familiar state: waiting for clarity that never quite arrives. Markets currently assign roughly even odds to a December rate cut, down sharply from near-certainty only a month ago, from about 90% to about 45%.

Yet in financial markets, the spotlight rarely stays on macroeconomics alone. This week, it settles squarely on Nvidia, the chipmaker-turned-icon of artificial intelligence. Two years ago, its explosive forecast ignited the AI investment mania. Today, it is valued less like a semiconductor company and more like a prophet. Expectations for its earnings have become a referendum on whether the AI boom is still a renaissance or beginning to look suspiciously like a bubble. Nvidia's results will not only reveal the state of one firm but also test the market's willingness to believe that the future will always be bigger, faster and more computationally expensive.

Alphabet, meanwhile, is enjoying the simpler pleasure of being Warren Buffett's latest crush. Berkshire Hathaway's new $4.3 billion stake sent the stock up more than 4%. Apple, for once, played the part of the neglected favourite, its shares slipping as Berkshire trimmed its exposure.

Retail giants - Walmart, Home Depot and Target - will soon share their own earnings, offering a street-level view of the consumer. For all the macro worry, corporate profits have remained surprisingly sturdy: more than 80% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations this quarter. The resilience would be encouraging if not for the nagging sense that investors have already priced perfection into many stocks. Turbulence in recent weeks suggests some of that confidence is wearing thin.

Beyond America, the economic picture is just as mixed. Japan and Switzerland both reported contractions, hinting that global growth is losing steam. South Korea's tech champions rallied after new domestic investment pledges, though it is unclear whether patriotic capital spending is a trend or simply the economic version of comfort food. And in Europe, the ECB warns that financial stability risks remain "elevated".

We have entered one of those somewhat peculiar phases in the stock market, during which investors are thrown off balance by the accumulation of contradictory signals. Oil prices remain range-bound, gold is softening as rate-cut hopes fade, and currencies are holding their breath. The Bitcoin wiped out its 2025 gains over the weekend and is now in a bear market, having fallen more than 20% from its peak on October 6.

In other news, the United States and Switzerland have concluded a preliminary trade agreement aimed at reducing customs duties on products exported by the Swiss Confederation.

On the macro agenda: the US Bureau of Labour Statistics confirmed on Friday the release of two delayed indicators: the monthly employment report on November 20 and September wages on November 21. Other outstanding data and new data will be announced as and when they become available, once the backlog has been cleared.

The start of the week is mixed in Asia-Pacific, with Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong losing ground. Japan announced a contraction in its economy in the last quarter, in line with expectations. South Korea, on the other hand, is up 1.9% after local conglomerates announced massive investments in AI. India, Taiwan and Australia are showing moderate gains. Europe and Wall Street futures are in the red.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: industrial production in Germany; in the United States, the Empire Manufacturing index will be released. See the full calendar here.

• Dollar index: 99,458
• Gold: $4,076
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $64.2 (WTI) $60.32
• United States 10 years: 4.11%
• BITCOIN: $94,175

In corporate news:

• Emirates placed an order for 65 additional Boeing 777-9 jets worth $38 billion and supported a feasibility study for a larger 777-10 variant.
• GE Aerospace announced a $50 million investment to build an On Wing Support facility in Dubai to support engine services and training.
• XPeng reported a narrower Q3 net loss of 380.9 million yuan with record vehicle sales and gross margin exceeding 20% for the first time.
• Alphabet shares jumped 5.5% after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.9 billion stake in the company.
• Textron's TRU Simulation received FAA qualification for its Bell 525 full-flight simulator, advancing pilot training capabilities.
• Incyte received a positive EU recommendation for Minjuvi as a treatment for relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma.
• Sea announced a $1 billion share buyback program, sending its stock up 2.4% in premarket trading.
• Walt Disney and YouTube TV reached a new multi-year distribution agreement restoring Disney channels like ESPN and ABC on the platform.
• Flydubai signed an agreement with GE Aerospace for 60 GEnx-1B engines to power its new Boeing 787-9 widebody fleet.
• Apple was ordered to pay Masimo $634 million for infringing pulse-oximetry patents in Apple Watch models.
• Chinese automakers including BYD, Geely, and GWM are rapidly expanding EV sales in South America, capitalizing on affordable pricing and new logistics hubs like Peru's Chancay port.
• Chandra Asri secured $750 million in financing from KKR to acquire Exxon Mobil's Esso fuel stations in Singapore.
• ConocoPhillips discovered gas off southeastern Australia, marking the first regional find in four years.
• Uber drivers in New Zealand were ruled to be employees by the country's Supreme Court, opening the door for collective bargaining rights.
• Alibaba was accused by a U.S. memo of assisting the Chinese military's tech operations, a claim the company denied.
• Nvidia's earnings forecast is expected to significantly influence the ongoing AI bull run, potentially driving further growth in the sector.
• Fischer Medical Ventures has launched its innovative low-field time-of-flight MRI platform.
• Northern Ocean's subsidiary completed the sale of the Deepsea Bollsta rig for $480 million.
• MS&AD Insurance is set to acquire an 18% stake in U.S. investment firm Barings for $1.44 billion.
• Tokyo Gas divested its U.S. subsidiary TVL LLC to Grayrock Energy for $255 million.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Dell Technologies Inc.: Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 144 to USD 110.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 28 to USD 25.
• Ingersoll Rand Inc.: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 86 to USD 65.
• Kraft Heinz: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 27 to USD 21.
• Rubrik, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 97.
• Sealed Air Corporation: Stifel downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 43.80 to USD 45.
• The Mosaic Company: Zacks downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 36 to USD 20.
• Applied Materials, Inc.: CTBC Securities Investment Service Co LTD maintains its add recommendation and raises the target price from USD 208 to USD 263.
• Atlassian Corporation: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 344 to USD 245.
• Block, Inc.: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its sell recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 60 to USD 45.
• Fmc Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 43 to USD 14.
• Nebius Group: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 143 to USD 110.
• Netflix, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1500 to USD 150.
• Pure Storage, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 72 to USD 90.