Energy: Falling inventories in the United States and growing geopolitical tensions are supporting oil prices in the short term, although fears of oversupply are counterbalancing this momentum. Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are prompting Moscow to limit its fuel exports until the end of the year. These announcements only affect a small portion of refined product exporters, but they demonstrate the effects of the war on the Russian oil industry. In the US, crude oil inventories fell by 600,000 barrels, while markets expected them to increase. Finally, observers are divided on the potential supply surplus that is looming. OPEC+ is increasing its supply, but some sources highlight difficulties encountered in reaching the planned level. According to Reuters, the enlarged cartel is currently delivering around 500,000 barrels per day below its targets due to a chronic lack of investment that is limiting production capacity. This does not prevent the market from fearing a supply surplus, especially as OPEC+ could approve a further increase in production of 137,000 barrels per day. In terms of prices, Brent is trading at around $66.80, compared with $62.70 for WTI.
Metals: Copper has risen above the $10,000 mark in London, reaching $10,412 (3-month contract). Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world's second-largest copper mine, declared force majeure after a landslide interrupted operations. This event caused prices to soar on the LME, with copper trading at its highest level since May 2024. Supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward, increasing concerns about market shortages. In the precious metals market, gold remains popular despite uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate policy. Its price is flying from record to record, supported by the weak dollar, central bank purchases, and geopolitical tensions. The rest of the sector is also in excellent shape: platinum rose 9% last week, while silver gained around 4.70% over the same period.
Agricultural products: There is a wide gap in performance between coffee, which rose 3% last week, and cocoa, which fell 4%. In between, grains are treading water. A bushel of wheat (December 2025 contract) is trading at 524 cents, while corn (same maturity) is trading at 424 cents per bushel.
