Yves Sanquer

Currencies: The kiwi gets its mojo back

The loonie and the kiwi put on a show last week. The former lost ground against its main rivals, while the latter took a breath of fresh air. So much so that the kiwi-cad recovered almost 3% over the week. Is this just a blip or a new trend in the making? Let's take a closer look.

July 10, 2023 at 05:22 pm

Rates: Caution advised

We had to wait until the sixth day of July to see a clear bearish session on the equity markets. The reason? Poor economic statistics from the four corners of the globe and more hawkish than expected Fed minutes. However, the job market helped to limit the damage - at least for the time being.

July 10, 2023 at 04:56 pm

Interest rates: In Sintra, hawks no longer scare doves

For months, we've been told that recession would soon hit the developed economies, and that we should expect the worst on the stock market. Except that, for the time being, and with all due respect to the interest-rate market, the stock market is doing just fine.

July 03, 2023 at 04:23 pm

Currencies: What's happening to the Peso?

The Mexican Peso continues to sail under clear skies. Up over 12% against the dollar since the start of the year, it still has upside potential, much to the delight of carry trade enthusiasts. The rest of us will take advantage of any intermediate pullbacks to join the party.

July 03, 2023 at 04:18 pm

Rate: God Save the Queen (from inflation)

Or should I say "God Save the King", which is now the official name of the English national anthem since the death of the Queen. She must be turning over in her grave at the sight of inflation which is rising at the speed of a galloping horse. So much so that the Bank of England has taken the financial community by surprise.

June 26, 2023 at 06:26 pm

Forex: "Do or don't, there is no try"

Clearly, the newly-appointed governor of the Turkish central bank, Hafize Gaye Erkan, has not learned the lessons of Master Yoda. So, yes, raising the key rate is a 180° turnaround from previous policy. But the market was expecting more, much more, to break the national currency's deflationary spiral.

June 26, 2023 at 06:18 pm

Rates: Go! One last one

How about another round of tightening? Because in essence, that's the message delivered by both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in their post-announcement speeches. Let there be no mistake: rates have not (yet) peaked.

June 19, 2023 at 05:29 pm

Currencies: Make EURO great again!

For several weeks, the European currency has been on a slippery slope against the US dollar. But that was before...

June 19, 2023 at 05:19 pm

Currencies: The pound dreams of greatness

There was a time, not so long ago, when British territory extended far beyond its natural borders. While the colonies disappeared at the beginning of the last century, the Commonwealth kingdoms endured, and today include Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Not that the British pound is impressed, as it remains one step ahead.

June 05, 2023 at 06:07 pm

Rates: Step out of your comfort zone

For some of you, stepping out of your comfort zone may mean going to the gym, taking a dip in the pool, speaking in public or asking your boss for a raise, which in these inflationary times is certainly not a bad thing. As an investor, it could mean shifting your paradigm and looking at things from a new, possibly uncomfortable angle. To paraphrase Sherlock Holmes, "when you've eliminated the impossible, what remains, however improbable, must be the truth...".

June 05, 2023 at 05:27 pm

And you thought inflation was under control?

For several weeks now, we've been witnessing the traditional sweep of experts explaining that the work of central banks has borne fruit, that inflation is (on the way to being) brought under control and that further rate hikes should no longer be necessary. However, the latest US figures paint a more mixed picture.

May 30, 2023 at 12:19 pm

Ready, steady, go.... Or maybe wait a little

Over the past few weeks, the dollar has embarked on a "remontada" that would make some of the big soccer teams green with envy. So much so, that it is now just a stone's throw away from critical levels for the future. Let's take a look at some of the most interesting cross-dollars to watch.

May 30, 2023 at 11:42 am

Rates: At a crossroads

Hopes of an agreement between the Republicans and the Democrats is pushing indices and interest rates to their respective resistances at 4200 points and 3.63%. Against all odds, a breakout should be favorable to both, while since last October, the correlation is reversed.

May 22, 2023 at 05:53 pm

Currencies: Dollar rebound benefits U.S. equities

The recovery of the U.S. dollar above its February lows has several consequences for other asset classes: first, it directly benefits U.S. equities and then weighs on gold.

May 22, 2023 at 05:39 pm

Rate: Keep your powder dry!

There was a time when weapons were powered by gunpowder. Black powder decomposes by deflagration if a wick lights it. What does this have to do with finance? The answer is at the end of the article.

May 15, 2023 at 05:10 pm

Forex: A dead cat bounce?

This expression is all the more relevant since cats are reputed to have seven lives. In any case, after weeks of underperformance, the U.S. dollar seems to want to beat all predictions by taking investors by surprise.

May 15, 2023 at 04:44 pm

Rates: Deal with it!

Those who were waiting for clear views on the continuation of monetary policy from two of the world's leading central banks, the Fed and the ECB, are in for a treat. So yes, when you read between the lines, the title seems to sum up the current situation. Before we go any further, let's take a look at what happened last week.

May 09, 2023 at 12:48 pm

Currencies : It's a case of make or break

The indications provided by the US and European central banks have not had much impact on investors. This is evidenced by the near absence of reactions on the foreign exchange market, which is known to represent "fast money". One has to look to the New Zealand Kiwi to get something to eat.

May 09, 2023 at 12:47 pm

European currencies in the lead

As you may have noticed, the European stock market indices (CAC40, FTSE 100, IBEX, SMI) are outperforming their global counterparts and first and foremost the flagship index of the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500. But did you know that their currencies are doing the same? Let's take advantage of this early week to take a look at the horizon.

April 24, 2023 at 04:47 pm

Rates: What will it be?

Between continued restrictive monetary policy and recessionary fears, investors are faced with a difficult choice. Perhaps the upcoming earnings season will tip the balance.

April 24, 2023 at 01:18 pm

The Fed now anticipates a recession

This is rare enough to be noted. In its minutes, the Fed clearly contemplated that given the recent developments in the banking sector, its projections for the March meeting were for a mild recession starting at the end of the year.

April 17, 2023 at 01:06 pm