Kevin Smith

Fed: A rate hike was gaining traction in July, before the chill from the jobs report

The Federal Reserve's latest Minutes show that the policy debate had noticeably hardened at the late-July meeting. While the FOMC held its benchmark rate in a 3.50% to 3.75% range, three members (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) preferred a 25 basis point increase. More broadly, several participants judged that further tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not ease, with some even arguing that "financial conditions may not be sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation sustainably back to 2%.

August 20, 2026 at 08:51 am

The US Treasury Fuels the Debasement Trade in Turn, Gold and Bitcoin Jump

The US Treasury's bold decision to double its buybacks of long-maturity bonds - from $2bn to $4bn per operation - signals a strategic pivot amid mounting fiscal pressures and soaring funding costs. Between September 9 and November 4, this move aims to bolster liquidity in older debt issues but resonates far beyond technical debt management. Markets reacted swiftly: 30-year Treasury yields plunged by seven basis points, the dollar weakened sharply, and safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin surged, underscoring a revival of the so-called "debasement trade". As Washington grapples with the political and economic implications of long-term rates, this shift challenges previous Treasury policies and raises critical questions for policymakers, including Federal Reserve voices like Kevin Warsh. Our in-depth analysis unpacks the significance of this development and its potential ripple effects across global financial markets.

August 20, 2026 at 08:50 am

Moderna takes off, while Trainline and Rockwool under pressure

Among the day's market movers are Geberit, FLSmidth, Rockwool and Carlsberg, with diverging paths after their quarterly releases. Moderna is the day's outlier after a Phase III win.

August 19, 2026 at 05:07 pm

Aberdeen does not expect a BoE rate hike despite inflation

Responding to the acceleration in UK inflation reported this morning by the ONS, Felix Feather, an economist at Aberdeen, says he still expects the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain a wait-and-see stance until the year-end.

August 19, 2026 at 05:07 pm

Home Depot delivers the essentials

The retailer's H1 results were solid. They have long been viewed as one of the primary barometers of discretionary spending in the United States. They underscore the economy's steady footing, or at least its resilience, across the Atlantic.

August 19, 2026 at 04:13 pm

UBS Upgrades Kingspan to Buy

Kingspan stands out on the Dublin market (+1.26%, at EUR100.30), supported by a UBS upgrade, which also raised its forecasts for fiscal years 2027 to 2029.

August 19, 2026 at 01:00 pm

Carlsberg tightens up guidance, but beer goes flat

Danish brewer Carlsberg on Wednesday tightened up its 2026 operating profit growth target, despite weaker-than-expected sales in H1, resulting from flat volumes in Asia, its second-largest market after Western Europe.

August 19, 2026 at 01:00 pm

Why the stock market gets nervous when the bond market wakes up

Oil above $90 is stoking inflation again, heavily indebted governments have to sell ever more paper just as AI hyperscalers tap the same pool of savings, and Japan, the world's banker for the past twenty years, is starting to keep more of its capital at home: long-term yields are jumping everywhere, and when risk-free money becomes expensive again, stocks look less attractive. That's the condensed answer to the question. The longer version follows.

August 19, 2026 at 12:17 pm

Klarna hit hard in New York after warning

Klarna was heavily punished on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday after the Swedish flexible payments platform reduced its 2026 business outlook due to a slowdown in consumer spending in Germany, its main market.

August 19, 2026 at 12:16 pm

Carry Trade Funded in Swiss Francs Back in Focus

Interventions aimed at supporting the yen are likely to increase the use of the Swiss franc as a funding currency. Such a shift would help weaken a currency whose strength has long weighed on Swiss exporters.

August 19, 2026 at 12:10 pm

Against headwinds, Carlsberg laboriously finds its way back to growth

The Danish brewing giant still generates half of its consolidated revenue from the mass-market beer segment. Meanwhile, sodas now represent a third, with premium beers counting for a sixth.

August 19, 2026 at 12:09 pm

Should we be worried about the US economy?

August data has been rather disappointing.

August 19, 2026 at 11:14 am

Nvidia H200 chips reportedly begin China entry

Initial batches of Nvidia's H200 processors have reportedly been cleared to enter mainland China. ByteDance and Tencent are each said to have received about 10,000 of these powerful AI chips.

August 19, 2026 at 09:50 am

Kalshi takes aim at the stock market

US prediction-markets platform Kalshi wants to expand into perpetual stock-index contracts, as many observers had expected. The move would put it in more direct competition with major listed derivatives exchanges.

August 19, 2026 at 09:49 am

IMF says Europe is giving up 3% of GDP for lack of an integrated financial market

Better integration of banking and venture capital could lift EU GDP by about 3% over the long term, according to the International Monetary Fund. Two thirds of the gain would come from removing barriers to cross-border bank lending, and the remaining third from a larger supply of risk capital.

August 19, 2026 at 09:30 am

When tax rumors risk prompting the wrong decisions

British insurers are worried about how savers might react to rumors of reforms. Note that it's never wise to act in haste.

August 19, 2026 at 09:30 am

Baidu shares slide 14%, caught between a free-falling ad business and record investment

Baidu shares fell about 14% Tuesday on the Nasdaq after results showed growth in its artificial intelligence businesses still is not fully offsetting the decline in its search engine.

August 19, 2026 at 09:30 am

With 23-hour trading, Nasdaq starts to look like Las Vegas

Nasdaq plans to extend trading in US stocks and exchange-traded products to 23 hours a day, five days a week, starting Sunday, December 6, 2026, subject to market infrastructure readiness and final regulatory adjustments.

August 19, 2026 at 09:30 am

Washington moves toward a sale of offshore mining leases near the Northern Mariana Islands

The United States is preparing a possible sale of leases for mining "critical" minerals in federal waters off the Northern Mariana Islands. The plan, which is still subject to several regulatory steps, reflects Washington's push to reduce its reliance on foreign supplies.

August 18, 2026 at 04:25 pm

Oil weighs on European stockmarket sentiment

Despite a solid ZEW reading, European stock markets are downbeat this Tuesday, as a geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East, which is pushing oil prices higher, fuels fears of stubborn inflation.

August 18, 2026 at 03:07 pm

Wall Street Wants to Put the Stock Market on the Blockchain

As the cryptocurrency market goes through a particularly bleak stretch, one small corner is actually moving in the opposite direction. Bitcoin is hovering around $60,000 to $65,000, Coinbase has just posted its third straight quarterly loss, and crypto trading volumes have contracted sharply. However, investors are increasingly trading… shares of Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, or US ETFs on crypto-native infrastructure. This market has a name: tokenized stocks.

August 18, 2026 at 03:07 pm